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Physical Description: Lanky
right-hander with an athletic frame. Still somewhat on the
skinny side, but has added noticeable muscle. Some projection
remaining, but will always be on the thin side.
Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot.
Starts with a wide base and does not utilize a wind-up.
Medium-high leg kick. Stays in line to the plate. Loose, quick
arm. Arm action is a little long behind and very quick coming
forward. Gets good extension. Some effort in his delivery, but
does a good job repeating it. Arm can get out ahead too quickly.
Fastball: 95-98 mph. Tops out at 99 mph.
Four-seam fastball primarily sits 97-98 mph. Generates easy
velocity. Command needs refinement and grades as below-average.
Struggles to locate arm-side, but has shown more feel commanding
to his glove side. When his arm gets out too quick, he loses his
release and tends to crossfire the pitch. Average spin rate.
Shows tail down in the zone and some ride and late life when up
in the zone. Will also mix in a two-seam fastball with arm-side
run in the mid-90s. Pitch is very effective at generating weak
contact and has even shown bat-missing ability when running down
and in on right-handed hitters. Velocity has steadily increased
over his career, from 91-93 mph during the 2018 Fall
Instructional League to 93-96 at 2020 Fall Instructs. Four-seam
plays below velocity, but addition of two-seam pushes grade up.
Potential plus offering.
Changeup: 87-89
mph. Started as a work in progress, but is now his best
secondary pitch. Throws with deceptive arm speed. Has good feel
for it and consistently throws competitive pitches. At its best,
shows late, arm-side fade down and away from the barrel of
left-handed hitters. Can really pull the string on it and the
pitch will fall off the table late. True major league-quality,
swing-and-miss pitch at its best. Most effective against
left-handed hitters, but has started to incorporate it more
against righties as well. On occasion, will slow his arm and
pitch ends up on the firm side. Potential plus offering.
Slider: 84-87 mph. Short, 10-to-4 shape. Will
flash the ability to land the pitch in the zone or get swinging
strikes, but command is still inconsistent. In some outings, he
lacks feel for the pitch and does not snap it off. Pitch has
shorter break when thrown harder and more break at lower
velocities. Pitch has a slightly above-average spin rate
compared to the MLB average for a right-hander. Shape will vary
at times, with some more vertical and others more horizontal.
Will throw often and in any count. Will flash plus in some
outings, but lack of consistency brings grade down. Potential
above-average pitch.
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Career Notes: Did not sign until age 18. Was
fairly dominant during debut in the DSL, but was old for the
level. Jumped all the way to Greenville the following year.
Struggled in the first half in 2019, but got stronger as the
season went on. Participated in the 2018 and 2020 Fall
Instructional League. Named to the 2021 and 2022 MLB Futures Games,
but did not pitch in the latter because he had been on the MLB
roster in the weeks prior to the game. Participated in the 2021
Fall Performance Program. Threw
a seven-inning no-hitter on May 6, 2022.
Participated in 2023 Rookie Development Program.
Summation: Potential mid-rotation starter. Ceiling of a
number two starter or high-end number three. At his best, will
flash three at least above-average pitches, and on the right
day, all will look like potential plus pitches. Has done a great
job improving his delivery and command to the point where you
can comfortably project him as a starter. Has done a much better
job repeating delivery and holding velocity deeper into starts
in looks in 2022. Attacks hitters with a plan and has multiple
pitches he is confident using against hitters. Against
right-handed hitters, throws a lot of two-seamers and sliders,
while against lefties he tends to go more with four-seam
fastballs up and changeups down. Has pitches that break in all
four directions and can be used in any quadrant. Has had allowed
more hard contact to lefties than righties and that is something
worth watching as he reaches the major league level. In the
past, he would show the stuff of a starter, but combination of
thin stature and delivery indicated a potential future in the
bullpen. Not imposing physically, but still has projection and
has the type of athleticism you look for. Has continued to
improve year after year, and now is the top pitching prospect in
the system and one of the top ten or so right-handed pitching
prospects in baseball.
Links
State of the System: Mid-Minors Pitchers (4.3.20)
Scouting Report Update (7.29.2020)
Scout Chatter (12.4.2020)
Scouting Scratch (7.21.2021)
Scouting Scratch: Red Sox 2021 Rule 5 Preview (11.18.2021)
Scouting Scratch: Breaking Down Brayan Bello (6.10.2022) |
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