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Physical Description: Medium,
athletic frame. Minimal projection remaining.
Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot.
Drop-and-drive delivery with effort. Starts on the first base
side of the rubber. Medium-high leg kick. Hides the ball well
behind. Pronounced arm hook, then whips his arm forward. Comes
across his body. Lands on line to the plate, but falls off hard
toward first base. Release point can get inconsistent. Presents
a funky look for hitters.
Fastball:
95-98 mph. Tops out at 99 mph. Average life. Control is ahead of
command at this point, but both are at least average already.
Needs to do a better job consistently getting ahead of hitters
with his fastball. Is much more comfortable pitching to his
glove side than arm side. Fastball velocity and quality decrease
as the game goes on. Velocity has increased since early in his
career and hit the upper 90s in 2024. Potential plus pitch.
Splinker (Splitter/Sinker): 90-93 mph. New
pitch to his arsenal in 2024 that developed from his splitter.
At its best, shows late dive down and out of the zone. Looks
like a sinking fastball at times with a little more vertical
drop. Still a work in progress, but flashed bat-missing
potential late in the year. High-variance offering, but flashes
above-average potential already.
Slider:
87-91 mph. Evolved from a low-80s, longer slider and a cutter in
the high-80s into a single pitch, a hard cut-slider, in 2024.
Will vary length, but primarily shows short, 10-to-4 shape.
Confident with pitch and able to land in the zone. Will flash
bat-missing ability. Potential solid-average pitch.
Sweeper: 80-82 mph. Newish pitch in 2024 with
long, horizontal break. Mostly used as a chase pitch, but has
shown the ability to land in the zone as well. Showed
improvement with it as 2024 went on. Potential average pitch.
Curveball: 77-79 mph. Long, 12-to-6 break
with depth. Used primarily to steal a strike early in the count
or to put away hitters late. Can be effective when used in
sequence. Potential fringe-average pitch.
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Splitter: 85-88 mph. Newish pitch in 2023 that
evolved from his changeup, which itself had developed from a
split-change. Some will show late dive and bat-missing ability
down and out of the zone. Shows potential as a chase pitch, but
still working on consistently landing it in the zone. Potential
average pitch, but has seemed to go away from it as he has
developed a splinker.
Career Notes:
Father, Lance Dobbins, played baseball at Alabama and in the
Diamondbacks system. All-State in high school. Pitched as a
reliever in the College World Series as a freshman in 2019.
Midweek starter as a sophomore in pandemic-shortened season.
Injured his UCL during a preseason scrimmage in 2021 and missed
the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March.
Participated in the Fall Performance Program in 2021 as a
rehabber. Returned in June 2022. Was set to participate in the
2022 Fall Performance Program that was canceled due to Hurricane
Ian. Was named to 2024 Spring Breakout roster. Was added to the
40-man roster in November 2024 to protect him from selection in
the Rule 5 Draft. Participated in the Red Sox Rookie Development
Program in January 2025. Pitched in 2025 Spring Breakout game.
Summation: Potential back-end starter or
multi-inning reliever. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. At his
best, will show plus-to-better velocity and several secondary
pitches that can all get hitters out. Wide-ranging arsenal with
pitches that move in all directions and confidence that he can
throw any of them for strikes. Still working to find a go-to,
major league-quality out pitch, but addition of splinker could
give him that pitch, as it shows bat-missing potential although
he has only been throwing it for a short period of time.
Effortful delivery brings injury and consistency concerns, and
needs to improve his fastball command. Fastball can get hittable
later in games and velocity tends to tick down. Needs to show he
can consistently get left-handed hitters out to profile as a
starter, but has developed into one of the more intriguing arms
in the system.
Links
Red Sox select
Hunter Dobbins with eighth-round pick
(7.12.2021)
Spring Training Video (3.13.25)
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