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Physical Description: Tall,
sturdy pitcher's frame. Has filled out considerably since
signing, especially in his lower half. High waist and long
limbs. Has filled out in his upper half as well. Was listed at
160 pounds when he signed. Returned from Tommy John surgery in
very good condition, but has seemed less athletic since 2023.
Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm
slot with significant effort in his delivery. Quick arm. Starts
on the first base side and does not utilize a wind-up, although
he has in the past. Somewhat deliberate going back, then whips
arm forward. Arm-heavy delivery and does not do a great job
incorporating his lower half. Works fast, which can cause his
delivery to get out of whack. Release point can get inconsistent
and he tends to overthrow at times, especially as he works
deeper into games and tires. Needs to improve consistency with
his delivery.
Fastball: 94-96 mph.
Topped out at 99 mph in the past. Velocity tails off as he works
deeper into games. Throws both a four-seam and sinker. Needs to
work on command and control. Fastball shows sink down in the
zone and some life when elevated, though it is easier to hit
than you would expect given its velocity. Too often, he will
lose his delivery and release point and his fastball control
will suffer as a result. Struggles to locate arm-side; has a
tendency to yank glove-side. Pitch sat 96-97 mph in 2020 in
shorter outings at the Alternate Training Site and was still
sitting there after he returned from Tommy John in 2022. Added
significant velocity in 2018; pitch used to sit 90-92, topping
out at 94. Potential above-average pitch, but how effective the
pitch is depends on how his command develops.
Slider: 87-90 mph. 11-to-5 shape. Inconsistent feel.
Has not constantly snapped the pitch off since return from Tommy
John surgery and the pitch has shown the tendency to roll to the
plate. Added the pitch before Spring Training 2019. Prior to his
injury, he had really taken to the pitch and showed improved
feel and confidence in it as he used it more. Pitch will flash
above-average, but lack of consistency drags it down as it will
also show below-average in some outings. Potential average
offering.
Changeup: 85-90 mph. Throws
with deceptive arm speed. Pitch is inconsistent and struggled
with feel in 2024. Has shown the ability to turn the pitch over
down in the zone against left-handed hitters on occasion. Used
to be much slower at 82-83 mph. Potential average offering, but
that grade is fluid.
Curveball: 78-81
mph. Vertical shape. When he snaps it off, pitch will show
depth. In the past, he was comfortable landing the pitch in the
zone, but as he become more of a short reliever he has rarely
used the pitch. Now primarily used to steal a strike early in
the count. Will flash potential, but lack of consistency pulls
down grade. Potential below-average offering.
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Career Notes:
Expected to sign with the Brewers in July 2015 at the start of
the international signing period, but a groin injury derailed
that agreement and he rehabbed the injury on his own before
signing with the Red Sox in January 2016 for what was likely a
much smaller bonus. Impressed at 2016 Fall Instructional League.
Fit description of (and likely was) unnamed player whom Red Sox
reportedly declined to include in trade talks during 2016-17
offseason. Started the 2017 season in extended spring training
before being promoted to Greenville at the end of May. Was
promoted aggressively early in his career: was the youngest
player in the South Atlantic League in 2017 and in the Carolina
League in both 2018 and 2019. Pitched just once after July 10 in
2018 due to a back injury. Missed a month with shoulder soreness
in 2019. Pitched at the Alternate Training Site in 2020,
suffering a hamstring injury in late August that caused him to
miss his last couple of starts. Participated in the 2020 Fall
Instructional League. Suffered a slight UCL tear in March 2021
and underwent Tommy John Surgery on April 13, 2021. Participated
in the Fall Performance Program in 2021 as a rehabber. Returned
to games on a rehab assignment in June 2022 and returned to
Portland and was activated at the end of that month.
Participated in 2023 Rookie Development Program. Once again hit
the injured list in May 2023 with a right teres major strain
that kept him out until the very end of the Triple-A season,
when he made two relief appearances. At least one player
development coach made pointed comments after the injury
questioning Mata’s work quality between starts. Selected to
participate in the Arizona Fall League in 2023. Again missed
most of the 2024 season due to injuries. Missed the start of the
season due to a right hamstring injury. After beginning a rehab
assignment in mid-May, was shut down again at the end of the
month with lat soreness. Started another rehab assignment in
mid-June that he completed, but he was not activated due to
right elbow soreness and he was eventually moved to the 60-day
IL. Started yet another rehab assignment in September but only
pitched in one game. Was designated for assignment in November
2024 and non-tendered, but agreed to re-sign on a
minor league contract with an invitation to 2025 major league
spring training. Is out of options without having made his MLB debut yet.
Summation: Potential volatile up-and-down
reliever. Ceiling of fringy middle-reliever. Injuries and lack
of consistency make him a very risky player. Was once seen as a
potential starter, but was pushed to the bullpen due to
inability to stay healthy and hold stuff for multiple innings.
At his best now, will show two averageish pitches, but stuff has
trended down. Unclear where velocity will be at when he is truly
healthy as he has not been for several years. In 2024, looks
showed okay stuff, but really struggled with command and control
which was a question even before he missed considerable time.
Links
Scouting Scratch (10.4.16)
Notes from the Field (3.22.17)
State of the System: High Minors Pitchers (4.9.20)
Video from Pawtucket (8.5.2020)
Countdown to Spring Training (3.10.2023)
Notes from the Field (5.1.2023) |
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