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Physical Description: Huge
frame with no remaining projection. Looks all of his listed
height and weight. Proportional for his size and surprisingly
athletic.
Mechanics: Throws from a low
three-quarters arm slot starting on the first base side of the
rubber. Compact delivery that he repeats well even though it has
effort. High leg kick. Really drives off his back side and gets
elite extension (7.4 feet or more). Has a low release height.
Arm action works, but has a slight stab behind. Comes across his
body. Deceptive delivery in large part due to how close to the
plate he releases the ball. Extremely difficult to pick up.
Fastball: 94-97 mph Tops out at 98.9 mph.
Pitch has life up and both vertical and horizontal movement. Has
shown elite bat-missing ability with the pitch, which has graded
out as one of the best four-seam fastballs in all of the
affiliated minor leagues. Pitch plays well above its velocity.
Has shown the ability to hold velocity into the late innings of
his outings and will even max out late in outings if needed.
Plus control and has at least an above-average long-term command
profile. Almost always around the zone with even his misses
remaining competitive. Velocity has increased considerably in
pro ball, jumping from sitting 90-91 mph in college. Potential
plus-plus offering.
Cutter: 89-92 mph.
Short, horizontal cut-slider. Has steadily improved as the 2025
season has progressed. Not a major whiff pitch, more designed to
get ahead and generate weak contact. Plays well off his
fastball. At its best when he is able to bring it back over the
plate for a strike against right-handed hitters. Solid
change-of-pace offering if he can consistently locate it in the
zone. Will occasionally blend together with his slower slider.
Potential above-average offering.
Slider:
85-88 mph. More traditional slider with two-plane shape. At its
best, shows depth and bite down in the zone. Primary secondary
pitch that evolved from a sweepy slider at 78-82 he threw in
college. Needs to develop more consistency with the offering and
the confidence to rely on it, but it flashes bat-missing
ability. Will look more like a sweeper at lower velocities and
more like a gyro-slider at higher end of the velocity band.
Potential solid-average offering and trending up as he continues
to refine it.
Changeup: 87-90 mph.
Inconsistent feel and shape. Some are firm and look like a
two-seam fastball, while others have late dive down and out of
the zone. Not a pitch he can consistently land for strikes yet,
but flashes bat-missing potential. Rarely thrown in college so
it is a work in progress. Will throw some that are well
below-average and not competitive and others that are plus
pitches. Potential average offering, but projection is fluid as
he continues to incorporate it more.
Curveball: 82-84 mph. Throws two variations: a
sweeper and more traditional 1-to-7, vertical breaker. Vertical
breaking ball is something he added in-season in 2025. Mostly
used to steal a strike early in counts or bury in the dirt when
looking for a whiff. Sweeper is a more traditional out-pitch.
Both will flash potential, but lack consistency. Potential
average offerings. |
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Career Notes: Mother was a member of the
Wichita State golf team and father competed in track and field
for Oklahoma State. Transferred to TCU after spending his first
two years at Wichita State, where he was a standout on both the
mound and at the plate as a power-first 1B/DH. Was a top-five
finalist for the John Olerud Award as the top two-way player in
the nation as a sophomore. Began to focus solely on pitching
early in his junior season at TCU, where he was named Big 12
Pitcher and Newcomer of the Year. Led the Big 12 in strikeouts
per nine and was 12th nationally in that statistic. Named to
2025 Spring Breakout roster. Skipped Low-A entirely and made his
pro debut in High-A Greenville. Entered the back end of the
Baseball America Top 100 prospect list in May 2025 and rose into
the top 50 by midseason. Became the top-ranked prospect in the
SoxProspects.com rankings in late July 2025. Made his MLB debut
in August 2025, barely over 13 months after signing, when the
MLB rotation was beset by injuries. Made three starts before
moving into the MLB rotation for the stretch run and playoffs.
Was a consensus top-50 prospect in the game entering the 2026
season, with most outlets placing him in their top 25.
Summation: Potential mid-rotation starter,
but projection is fluid given the strides he has made since
joining the organization. Ceiling of a number two starter, but
even that may be light. Could get to the majors in 2025 using
just his fastball, but secondary stuff needs continued
development to reach his potential. Outlier fastball gives him a
high floor, especially combined with his frame and ability to
mix in four secondary pitches. Lacks a go-to out pitch right now
among those secondaries, but all grade out around average and
have improved as 2025 has gone on. This allows him to mix and
match while he finds which one is working in a given outing.
Cutter and curveball, which were both new additions during the
2025 season, have shown considerable potential, especially the
former. Cutter plays well off his fastball as a pitch to change
eye level and generate weak contact. Changeup has also improved
considerably since he signed and flashes more upside than his
breaking balls at times, but in other outings his cutter or
slider have served as his primary out pitch. Could stand to gain
more separation between the two breaking balls, as they blend
together at times. Has turned into one of the top left-handed
pitching prospects in all of baseball in a short amount of time.
Very unique pitching prospect given his size and delivery,
especially given that he only began to focus exclusively on
pitching in his junior season. Massive extension to the plate
grades near the top of all pitchers in pro ball. Type of arm
that you want to bring into the player development system with
some standout traits to build on. Extremely competitive on the
mound, but an equally entertaining and jovial presence off the
field.
Links
Red Sox select Payton Tolle with 50th overall pick
(7.14.24)
Spring Training Video (3.18.25)
Scouting Report Update (4.19.25) |
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